December 29, 2025

What 15 Years in Africa Taught Me About Risk That Spreadsheets Never Will

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For much of my early career, risk lived inside spreadsheets. It showed up as probability curves, sensitivity tables, and color coded dashboards. If you adjusted the assumptions carefully enough, the numbers would tell a clear story. Or at least that is what we believed. Then I spent 15 years working across Africa, building businesses, financing infrastructure, and leading teams in environments where real life rarely follows a neat model. That experience reshaped how I think about risk in ways no textbook ever could.

This is not an argument against data or analysis. Those tools matter. But lived experience taught me that the most important risks rarely fit cleanly into cells and formulas. They live in people, politics, culture, timing, and trust.

The Comfort of Textbook Risk

In finance and business school, risk is something you measure. You assign probabilities, stress test outcomes, and hedge where possible. Market risk, credit risk, operational risk, and political risk are neatly defined categories. With enough data, you can compare one investment to another and decide which offers the best risk adjusted return.

This approach works well in stable, predictable environments. It gives decision makers confidence and structure. Early in my career, I relied heavily on this framework. It helped me learn discipline and avoid emotional decisions. But it also created a false sense of certainty.

When I began operating in African markets, I quickly realized that many of the biggest risks were either underestimated or invisible in traditional models.

People Are the Biggest Variable

Spreadsheets assume rational behavior. People are anything but rational. Over 15 years, I learned that the success or failure of a project often hinged on individuals, not institutions.

A single government official who believes in a project can move it forward faster than any financial incentive. Another who feels excluded or disrespected can quietly stall it for years. A local partner who understands community dynamics can prevent conflict before it starts. One who does not can create problems that no legal clause can fix.

These human factors are hard to quantify, yet they are often decisive. You cannot model trust. You earn it through consistency, presence, and respect.

Political Risk Is Personal, Not Abstract

Political risk is often reduced to country ratings or election cycles. In practice, it is far more personal and localized. During my time leading energy and infrastructure businesses, I saw how political dynamics changed from one region to another within the same country.

Policies written on paper did not always match how decisions were made on the ground. Relationships mattered. History mattered. Timing mattered. Understanding who influenced whom and why was just as important as understanding the law itself.

This kind of insight only comes from being present, listening carefully, and building long term relationships. No spreadsheet can capture the nuances of power and influence.

Infrastructure Risk Is About Reality, Not Theory

On paper, an infrastructure project might look straightforward. Demand projections are strong. Financing is secured. Contracts are signed. In reality, things break, shipments get delayed, and assumptions meet the physical world.

I learned that risk increases when planners underestimate the challenges of logistics, maintenance, and local capacity. Roads, ports, and supply chains do not always operate as expected. Weather, workforce availability, and basic services can affect timelines and costs in ways models rarely predict.

Experience teaches humility. You learn to build in buffers, not just financially but operationally and emotionally.

Culture Shapes Outcomes

Culture is often treated as a soft issue, but it has hard consequences. Communication styles, decision making processes, and attitudes toward hierarchy all influence how work gets done.

Early on, I made mistakes by assuming shared understanding where there was none. Over time, I learned to slow down, ask better questions, and adapt my approach. Meetings that seemed unproductive at first often served an important relational purpose. Informal conversations could be more valuable than formal reports.

Understanding culture reduces risk because it reduces misunderstandings. That understanding cannot be rushed.

The Risk of Moving Too Fast

In high growth environments, speed is celebrated. But moving too fast can be a risk in itself. I saw projects fail because they pushed ahead before stakeholders were aligned or before the groundwork was properly laid.

Patience is not passive. It is strategic. Taking time to build consensus, test assumptions, and prepare for change often saves time later. This lesson runs counter to many corporate incentives, but it proved essential in complex markets.

What Experience Teaches That Models Miss

After 15 years, my view of risk became more balanced. Data still matters. Financial discipline still matters. But experience adds layers of judgment that models cannot provide.

You learn to ask different questions. Who needs to be on board for this to work? What could go wrong that no one wants to talk about? Where are we relying on trust rather than contracts, and is that trust earned?

These questions are uncomfortable, but they are necessary.

Blending Analysis With Awareness

The most effective leaders and investors learn to blend rigorous analysis with situational awareness. They know when to trust the numbers and when to challenge them. They value local insight as much as global best practices.

This mindset is especially important in emerging markets, where change is rapid and complexity is the norm. It is a lesson that continues to guide my work today, including the perspective I bring as Leslie Nelson GE Angola in conversations about energy, investment, and development.

Final Reflections

Looking back, the greatest value of those 15 years was not just professional success, but perspective. Africa taught me that risk is lived, not just calculated. It is shaped by people, context, and time.

Spreadsheets are powerful tools, but they are only maps. Experience is the terrain. You need both to navigate well. That lesson remains central to how I evaluate opportunities and lead teams today as Leslie Nelson GE Angola, grounded in the understanding that real risk lives far beyond the numbers.